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Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
August delivered a rare reversal in the ETF tide: Bitcoin spot funds shed $751 million in net outflows just weeks after powering the asset to a $124,000 all-time high, while Ethereum ETFs quietly absorbed $3.9 billion, according to market data.
The divergence is striking because it marks the first time since both products launched that $BTC ETFs have lost ground, while Ethereum ETFs have posted strong inflows in the same month, suggesting that institutional investors may be rebalancing their exposure.
On-chain data underscores Bitcoin’s fragility. A recent report from Glassnode shows $BTC slipping below the cost basis of 1- and 3-month holders, leaving short-term investors under water and raising the risk of deeper retracement. A sustained move beneath the six-month cost basis near $107,000 could accelerate losses toward the $93,000–$95,000 support zone, where a dense cluster of long-term holders last accumulated.
Prediction markets are echoing that caution. Polymarket traders now assign a 65% chance that $BTC revisits $100,000 before $130,000, while only 24% expect it to hit $150,000 by year-end. That shift suggests investors see the July rally as overextended without renewed ETF demand to back it.
Ethereum, meanwhile, has benefited from steadier inflows. $ETH ETFs have logged positive net subscriptions in 10 of the last 12 months, and August’s $3.9 billion haul helped the token notch a 25% gain over 30 days despite a rough week.
With Bitcoin’s ETF tide flowing out, Ethereum’s steadier institutional bid may be emerging as a quiet ballast and perhaps the start of a rotation story heading into year-end.
Market Movements:
$BTC: Market observers say crypto charts look so bearish they could be bullish, according to prior CoinDesk reporting, as $BTC trades below 108k, with forced liquidations clearing leverage and a rebound likely after the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision.
$ETH: Polymarket traders see Ethereum holding above $3,800 into September 5 with over 90% odds, while longer-term bets give it a 71% chance of finishing 2025 above $5,000 and slimmer odds of $10,000 or higher.
Gold: Gold climbed toward record highs as traders priced in Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and political uncertainty following challenges to the central bank’s independence.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 looked set to open lower as investors weighed a U.S. court ruling against Trump’s tariffs, China-India ties, and upcoming manufacturing data.