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A top market analyst has identified the level $XRP must breach to soar to “Valhalla” as well as the region that could trigger the next bear market.
EGRAG Crypto recently discussed these levels as $XRP battles the bears at $3. Notably, his analysis uses a logarithmic regression model and a formation he calls the “Bent Fork,” which shows both the upside potential and the danger zones for $XRP.
Importantly, his chart features a regression channel drawn on a logarithmic scale. This model highlights previous cycles and how $XRP moved in parabolic waves during these cycles.
Interestingly, this target matches the upper boundary of the Bent Fork, which has provided a guide for his cycle analysis. Similar breakouts in earlier cycles produced massive gains that culminated in a rally to the upper boundary, and EGRAG believes this one could follow the same path.
Particularly, when $XRP soared in Cycle 1, it reached the upper arch of the Bent Fork at an all-time high of $0.0614 in December 2013. A similar run during Cycle 2 saw $XRP hit the upper arch at $3.3 in January 2018. Now, in Cycle 3, the upper arch sits at $23, and EGRAG expects a similar run.
A Drop to $1.62 Would Mark the Start of a Bear Market
However, the bullish case depends on $XRP holding important support levels. The first level sits at $2.90, which marks the middle of the regression channel. As long as the price stays above this zone, the bullish structure remains intact.
EGRAG noted that if $XRP slips below it, the next strong defense appears at $2.65. A quick dip under that level may not matter, but closing the day below it would weaken the setup. This aligns with his previous suggestion that it is all noise until $XRP breaks above $3.65 or dips below $2.65.
Meanwhile, another important marker sits at $2.33, which aligns with the 21-week exponential moving average. EGRAG describes this level as the final lifeline for the bullish structure. A fall through $2.33 would make it much harder for $XRP to reclaim its former all-time high, let alone aim for the higher arches of the Bent Fork.
If the slide continues, $1.90 becomes the line where bearish momentum begins. Dropping through that level would flip the market tone from hopeful to defensive.
Meanwhile, the danger zone would deepen at $1.62, which EGRAG marks as confirmation of a full bear market. A close below that point, especially under the mid-arch of his model, would indicate the start of a downward cycle.
Right now, $XRP trades for $2.92, still holding the primary support at $2.9. Notably, the larger cycle structure leaves room for upside as long as $XRP maintains its ground above this region or the lower support levels.