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Notable crypto commentator Kenny Nguyen has shared his view on where he believes the price of $XRP ought to be once spot $XRP ETFs go live.
While $XRP currently trades around $3, Nguyen expressed conviction in a tweet today that it could reach the high double-digit range. Specifically, he stated that $XRP should be between $22 and $50 once the first set of spot $XRP ETFs launches.
With $XRP trading at $3.11 today, this projection implies a potential rally of 607% to over 1,507%. For perspective, this would give $XRP a market cap of between $1.3 trillion and $3 trillion, compared to its current $186 billion.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, an $XRP ETF applicant, recently shared this perspective in a podcast. McClurg noted that this structural advantage, combined with $XRP’s dominance in the payments niche and its global community of millions, strengthens the argument for substantial initial inflows.
$XRP Price Scenarios Based on Capital Inflows and Multipliers
As the market awaits the launch of $XRP ETFs, various projections from industry figures and models offer insight into $XRP’s potential upside.
For instance, McClurg estimates that $XRP could attract $5 billion in investment in its first month. Notably, using analyst Dom’s 272x market cap multiplier, this could push $XRP’s market cap to $1.546 trillion. This translates to a price of $26 per $XRP—within Nguyen’s projected range.
Another model uses a comparison with Bitcoin ETF flows. As previously analyzed by The Crypto Basic, if spot $XRP ETFs capture 35% of Bitcoin ETF inflows since launch (around $16.3 billion), and a conservative 100x multiplier is applied, $XRP’s market cap could rise to $1.759 trillion, implying a price near $30.
Alternatively, under a more cautious scenario:
- 15% of $BTC ETF inflows ($5.85 billion) could push $XRP to $12.23
- 30% ($11.7 billion) could raise the price to $22.20 — right at Nguyen’s lower bound.
$XRP to Follow Bitcoin’s Trajectory Post-ETF?
Analysts often draw parallels between $XRP’s potential and Bitcoin’s performance after its ETF launch in January 2024. Bitcoin initially dipped on launch day but then rallied to new all-time highs above $100,000 within the year as ETFs accumulated over 1 million $BTC.
As a result, $XRP supporters have speculated that $XRP could also break unprecedented price levels if it follows a similar trajectory.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has yet to break its all-time high, despite ETF investments since last year. Momentum only recently shifted with the emergence of multiple ETH treasuries, helping the altcoin approach its 2021 peak.
Ultimately, $XRP may chart its own path following an ETF launch and may not mirror Bitcoin’s trajectory, as the $XRP Army often speculates.
ETF Approval Odds Keep Climbing
Notably, approval odds for spot $XRP ETFs have been rising. Bloomberg ETF analysts recently placed the likelihood at 95%. Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket shows an 80%–88% chance of approval in 2025.
Several major asset managers, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree, have filed applications. The U.S. SEC is currently reviewing them, with a decision deadline in October.