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Solana’s (SOL) price has struggled to break above $160 over the past two months, repeatedly failing to sustain momentum. However, many in the market believe that “Uptober” could bring a reversal.
The expected bullishness could drive SOL up by 20%, potentially pushing it closer to the $200 mark, a significant psychological barrier.
Solana Has a Rally to Look Forward To
Solana’s price is dependent on a ton of factors, but the biggest of them are the broader market cues. In an interview with BeInCrypto, Bill Qian, Chairman of Cypher Capital, discussed how the lack of liquidity is a major concern.
“Solana has been stuck in a consolidation phase between $186 and $120, largely due to insufficient liquidity in the broader whole cryptocurrency market. While the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle may provide some additional liquidity in October, this alone may not be enough to break Solana out of its range. A more significant catalyst would be the onset of an altcoin season, where speculative funds and attention shift from other chains to the Solana ecosystem. If capital and attention from other Layer 1 chains are absorbed into Solana’s vibrant DeFi, NFT, and gaming sectors, the possibility of breaking out of its consolidation range increases significantly,” Qian told BeInCrypto.
Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21.co, in an interview with BeInCrypto, expanded further on the potential of a rally arising from the development of the Solana chain as well as macro-financial market cues.
“Solana was on track to retest the $200 level before the Japanese Yen Unwind Trade and other adverse macro catalysts disrupted the market. However, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue cutting interest rates, including two more reductions projected before year-end, a renewed risk-on sentiment could bring liquidity into the market, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets like Solana.
Furthermore, the recent launch of the Frankendancer client on mainnet and the anticipated 2025 launch of Firedancer, which has achieved over 1,000,000 tps on testnet, represent significant technical advancements that reinforce Solana’s standing as a leading high-performance Layer 1 blockchain. Firedancer is expected to boost Solana’s throughput and enhance the network’s validator client diversity, significantly improving its resilience against attacks and bugs. These upgrades could reignite investor interest and position Solana as a strong contender for a breakout, making a retest of the $200 level increasingly likely,” Mena told BeInCrypto.
Furthermore, the macro momentum for Solana is showing positive signs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests that bullish momentum has been building since late September. This momentum is expected to last for 42 days, giving SOL enough room to rise significantly in October.
Historically, when this kind of bullish momentum takes hold, Solana experiences sustained upward movements. If this trend follows previous patterns, SOL could rise to $186 by the end of October, providing a strong recovery opportunity for investors.
Read more: Solana vs. Ethereum: An Ultimate Comparison
SOL Price Prediction: For the Better or for the Worse?
Currently, Solana is trading at $155 and is testing this level as a support. The key barrier remains $160, a resistance that has held strong for the past two months. If Solana manages to close above $160, it will be a significant achievement, indicating a potential bullish breakout.
Solana could rally toward $186 if this breakout occurs, a level last tested in August. Breaching this resistance could trigger a rise to $200, a critical milestone for SOL. This would represent a 20% increase, aligning with the overall optimistic sentiment surrounding the token in October.
Read more: Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
However, failure to break the $160 resistance could lead to a massive pullback. In such a scenario, Solana might drop to $138, retesting this lower support level and invalidating the bullish outlook for the token.