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Rising U.S. government debt, which is estimated to reach 106% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2028, is partly driving recent increases in gold prices and Bitcoin (BTC), according to market watchers. Despite the Treasury market's relative calm regarding the nation's fiscal direction, the uncontrolled growth of U.S. government debt is attracting increasing attention.
The U.S. budget deficit rose to $1.7 trillion in fiscal year 2023 and is projected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Public US government debt will rise from $17 trillion at the beginning of 2020 and $5 trillion in 2007 to $27 trillion in 2034.
According to analysts, this worsening trend has increased demand for Bitcoin and gold, which are widely used as a hedge against inflation and the depreciating purchasing power of the US currency. “Concerns about the US debt cycle and the depreciation of currency, especially fiat currency, are driving the market,” said Brad Bechtel, Head of Global FX at Jefferies.
Increasing debt has pushed investors to turn more towards Bitcoin and gold. Bechtel added: “Concerns about the depreciation of fiat money are often one of the factors that motivate gold investors.”
Gold broke a record last week, reaching $2,431 per ounce, due to the interest rate cut expectations of central banks and the purchases made by foreign central banks to diversify their reserves. This is partly due to inflation concerns and is also a way to hedge against possible US sanctions in a geopolitical dispute.
Lawrence H. White, Professor of Economics at George Mason University, expressed concern that rising debt and deficit were occurring in a peacetime economy operating at full employment. “That's when you normally have to run a budget surplus, and we're not even close to that. So in the next recession, our debt is going to go up even more,” White said.
*This is not investment advice.